Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MAN-YI-18 Off-shore from 19 Nov 2018 18:00 UTC to 22 Nov 2018 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MAN-YI-18

Off-shore

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAN-YI-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	194 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (25 Nov 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	167 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	194 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	19 Nov 2018 18:00	185	120 thousand	1 thousand	Guam
2	20 Nov 2018 00:00	176	220 thousand	No people	Guam
3	20 Nov 2018 06:00	176	220 thousand	No people	Guam
4	20 Nov 2018 12:00	185	210 thousand	No people	Guam
5	20 Nov 2018 18:00	194	210 thousand	Few people	Guam
6	21 Nov 2018 00:00	176	210 thousand	No people	Guam
7	21 Nov 2018 06:00	176	210 thousand	No people	Guam
8	21 Nov 2018 12:00	157	50 thousand	No people
9	21 Nov 2018 18:00	176	50 thousand	No people
10	22 Nov 2018 00:00	176	50 thousand	No people
11	22 Nov 2018 06:00	176	50 thousand	No people
12	22 Nov 2018 12:00	167	50 thousand	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	19 Nov 2018 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	3700 people	4.4, 156.6
2	20 Nov 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	40000 people	4.8, 155.6
3	20 Nov 2018 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	4400 people	4.6, 154.9
4	20 Nov 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	49000 people	4.8, 154.2
5	20 Nov 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	83	<1000 people	50000 people	6, 152.6
6	21 Nov 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	93	<1000 people	49000 people	6.7, 151
7	21 Nov 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	4000 people	7.6, 149.1
8	21 Nov 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1300 people	8.7, 146.9
9	21 Nov 2018 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	<1000 people	9.6, 143.9
10	22 Nov 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	2900 people	10.6, 141.8
11	22 Nov 2018 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	11.8, 139.7
12	22 Nov 2018 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	13, 138.3
12	23 Nov 2018 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	14.9, 136.2
12	23 Nov 2018 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	16.3, 135.4
12	24 Nov 2018 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	17.3, 135.2
12	24 Nov 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17.9, 134.8
12	25 Nov 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	18.7, 132.5
12	26 Nov 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	19.7, 130.7
12	27 Nov 2018 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	21.3, 130

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Mualbual, Philippines. This height is estimated for 25 Nov 2018 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (13 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 22 Nov 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Mualbual	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Wright	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Pequit	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Pabanong	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Hinabangan	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 14:00	Macalonud	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Catbalogan	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Bangon	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 14:00	Bagacay	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	San Andres	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Tatabunan	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Guintampilan	Philippines	0.1
	25 Nov 2018 13:00	Narombacan	Philippines	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.